Why cement prices in Juba doubled this quarter.

A 50 kg bag of Portland 42.5 cement traded at roughly USD 9 at Juba retail in November 2025. As of last week, that same bag is trading at USD 18–20. Here’s what’s driving it.

Cement is the canary for every construction project. When prices double, BOQs blow out, contractors stall, and procurement teams scramble. We’ve been fielding the same call from corporate buyers and NGO infrastructure teams for two months — so it’s worth writing the explanation down properly.

Three drivers, in order of impact

The doubling isn’t one factor. It’s three, stacked.

1. Currency depreciation

The South Sudanese Pound has lost roughly 35% against the USD in the last six months. Cement is imported — primarily from Kenya and Uganda — and quoted in dollars. Local-currency selling prices have to adjust upward just to maintain dollar margin.

Of the 100% increase in SSP retail prices, currency depreciation accounts for somewhere between 40 and 50 percentage points. Half the doubling, before anything else.

2. Transit cost increase

Diesel along the corridor is up roughly 18% from Q4 2025. Border fees and informal costs along the Northern Corridor have also risen. Truckers have re-priced their per-tonne haulage from Mombasa accordingly. That adds another 20–25 percentage points to landed cost.

Where currency is gradual, transit is step-function: hauliers raise rates in clusters, then hold, then raise again. We’re in a hold phase right now — but another rate jump is likely before the rains.

3. Seasonal demand

Q1 is the construction peak in Juba — dry season, public sector tenders running off, residential build accelerating before May rains. Demand is up at exactly the moment supply is tight. That’s the last 15–20 percentage points.

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Q1 is the construction peak in Juba. Demand is up at exactly the moment supply is tight.

What to plan for, 90 days out

Three working hypotheses for your construction planning:

• Cement won’t fall back to USD 9 in 2026. Currency and transit drivers are structural, not cyclical.
• May–August is your soft window. Rains slow construction starts — demand pressure eases. Use it for stocking, not for ordering deliveries.
• Lock pricing in BOQs as currency clauses. Most contractors are absorbing FX risk on fixed-price BOQs. Renegotiate to USD-denominated material lines where possible.

What we’re doing

For our current construction supply clients, we’re holding 4–6 weeks of bonded cement inventory in Juba — effectively buying out at older landed-cost levels and passing through the saved margin. That gives clients pricing predictability against a volatile market.

If you’re running an active project and the price moves are eating your margin, talk to us. There are options — volume commitments, fixed-price quarterly contracts, even bonded carry arrangements — that aren’t available in standard spot procurement.